Monday, January 12, 2009

Are we there yet?

TNS has published some data suggesting that we may have reached the bottom of the recession. I'm optimistic enough to think they may be right, although their evidence is just a few data points (December was -1.5% in retail sales, a slight improvement over November's -2.5, and consumer shopping intentions improved very slightly).

I'm contrarian enough that my willingness to accept the data may just be my reaction to what sounds to me like wildly overstated cries of doom, but it does seem likely to me that if we are not at the bottom we are likely very near it.

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