Nietsen questions Twitter retention

There has been a lot of celebrity-centered hype about Twitter lately, with Oprah sending her first tweet and a big race to be the first to have a million followers (won by Aston Kutcher, who I think is an actor).

Any communications vehicle is potentially a marketing vehicle, and a lot of marketers are giving thought to Twitter's potential. A study from Nielsen indicates that, while Twitter may be spreading like wildfire, the fire may burn out just as quickly:

Currently, more than 60 percent of U.S. Twitter users fail to return the following month, or in other words, Twitter’s audience retention rate, or the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is currently about 40 percent. For most of the past 12 months, pre-Oprah, Twitter has languished below 30 percent retention.

That doesn't mean that Twitter will not be successful. If thirty to forty percent of users remain active, and if the application continues its spread to the point that just about everybody tries, then it will be huge. If, however, the anti-hype from the Twitter Quitters begins to discourage new trials, then there will be a problem. We'll keep watching (and even tweeting).