Monday, November 12, 2007

Continuing bad news for media

A bit of deja vu -- I think I've written that headline before. Several times, in fact. Spooky, huh?

Newspapers: The latest circulation reports are out, and they're as bad as ever. All daily papers down 2.5, Sundays down 3.5%. Twenty-one of the top twenty-five down. New York Times down 4.5% daily, 7.6% Sunday, Washington Post down ... But why go on? You've heard it all before.

Radio: The radio biz had been expecting a bad September, but it was much worse than expected:
Radio ad revenues fell an alarming 7% in September compared to the same month in 2006--a far steeper decline than the 1% dip forecast by industry analysts. The weak performance is especially ominous as September 2006 provided an easy comparison benchmark for the industry to beat. [...]

The 7% drop is sending analysts scrambling to readjust their current forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of 2007. In a note to investors, Jim Boyle, a senior analyst with CL King and Associates, predicted a 3% drop in radio revenues during the third quarter. He also warned that fourth-quarter comparisons "are substantially harder" than the third quarter's.
Magazines: Just to provide a bit of company for the misery, Newsweek dropped its circulation base by 500,000 -- a 16% cut.

All traditional media: A study published in Adweek says that traditional media will lose 30% of their revenues over the next five years.
About 30 percent of the advertising revenue now resting in the coffers of traditional media companies will shift to online ad exchanges like Yahoo! and Google in the next five years, according to a new report from IBM Global Business Services.

More than half of the 80 industry executives IBM polled for its survey anticipate a shift of this magnitude, which would involve billions of dollars, said Saul Berman, a co-author of the report, "The End of Advertising as We Know It."
What happens to a business that loses 30% of its revenue? I think we all know.

Love that report title.

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